Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 81809.252315 86343.445058 90873.997301 95737.334883 100806.809110 105932.065678 111502.036169
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 74439.023232 81389.748916 88527.018369 96393.361241 104809.519997 113533.557349 123249.850741
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 68784.012313 77355.777763 86349.991784 96469.919066 107517.702307 119190.727927 132434.991289
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 65237.458494 75107.573413 85651.154523 97717.060657 111106.768865 125473.758117 142017.997456
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 61326.605982 72109.441472 83814.069633 97411.705833 112720.539713 129369.384078 148789.655464
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59154.506154 70852.660732 83729.703692 98885.718524 116162.327800 135168.777959 157583.035880
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 56936.410879 69379.378378 83255.160351 99784.155593 118841.499022 140028.029235 165262.215684
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 54470.223407 67475.051489 82157.773914 99848.250318 120464.503534 143610.396382 171434.270869
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52121.927861 65587.073176 80969.201732 99702.867865 121755.933018 146743.546394 177041.056426
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51059.561828 65154.259609 81424.426937 101428.849109 125187.304666 152324.588565 185476.313549
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50073.202973 64751.837964 81864.842532 103095.479574 128521.328323 157782.891421 193781.016725
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48662.965536 63768.708582 81554.010331 103815.776498 130696.360374 161861.817751 200465.716764
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 46872.863235 62280.944987 80609.506072 103763.931506 131960.622258 164901.806567 205992.928789
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45438.698805 61184.268330 80099.237040 104205.351164 133798.100032 168619.717252 212344.669752
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 43887.905551 59883.177515 79286.199044 104229.665845 135093.411791 171667.156296 217889.499708
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43061.339195 59463.867526 79536.805898 105543.583778 137951.830758 176597.992477 225720.825667
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 41508.460793 58059.516874 78505.405545 105215.972858 138751.916204 179008.996995 230489.617878
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 40920.146224 57877.257616 78995.775631 106782.998738 141896.253159 184286.801768 238776.042209
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40091.091935 57348.590423 79018.815394 107738.229282 144265.205428 188614.063408 245915.115810
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 38914.322420 56322.557126 78369.409437 107806.350350 145496.331869 191525.212487 251311.524047
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37700.109022 55208.464849 77571.388798 107651.756479 146420.223255 194039.449946 256213.018334
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37385.211774 55288.014721 78317.930818 109486.836245 149878.842540 199729.401908 265095.879634
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37061.733189 55340.759002 79018.944428 111258.455596 153261.166001 205340.155977 273912.830704